Risk of a renewed conflict
The risk of renewed conflict in Tigray remains significant because several core elements of the 2022 Pretoria Agreement are still unfulfilled, particularly security restructuring, border normalization, and the safe return of displaced Tigrayans from Western Tigray. International Crisis Group briefings and UN reports from 2024–2025 note that these delays have created instability, encouraged military posturing, and left communities uncertain about their future. Internal political divisions inside Tigray further heighten the danger, as documented by Reuters and the Associated Press, which have reported instances of armed confrontations between rival Tigrayan factions. At the same time, Ethiopia–Eritrea relations have deteriorated again. Analysts warn that the presence of forward-deployed forces along the border and increasingly hostile rhetoric mean that even a small miscalculation near areas such as Zalambessa or Rama could trigger a wider confrontation.
Escalation could occur through a border clash, renewed tensions over Western Tigray, or disputes between competing Tigrayan factions that draw in regional actors. Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International emphasize that unresolved displacement, competing claims to land, and unresolved wartime abuses remain key sources of tension. Preventing a return to war requires verifiable implementation of remaining peace commitments, independent accountability processes for grave violations, and stronger civilian services to reduce the appeal of armed solutions.
Humanitarian relief contributes directly to stability by improving community safety and lowering stress in high-risk areas. Priority actions include strengthening protection services, ensuring uninterrupted humanitarian access, restoring essential services, expanding mine clearance, and supporting voluntary returns with legal and livelihood assistance. When these measures are combined with credible political steps, the likelihood of renewed conflict is significantly reduced.
Coalition For Tigray 